Julian Shapiro is the founder of Demand Curve, a Y Combinator-funded training program that teaches companies and individuals to become expert marketers. You can follow him on Twitter and read his writing here.
His Trends lecture highlights the best growth marketing tactics for 2020.
This article summarizes his 15 most actionable ideas:
1. Retarget Your Newsletter Unsubscribers
2. Do Hyper Targeted Geo Rollouts to Look Bigger Than You Are
3. Cross Target Across Platforms
4. Create Good, Cheap Video Ads
5. Find Cost-Effective YouTube Sponsorships
6. Pre-target Through LinkedIn
7. Turn Blog Visitors Into Leads
8. Do Direct Mail Properly
9. Be Careful About Aggressive CTAs
10. Use Ads to Narrow Down Your Copy
11. Figure Out Word-of-Mouth/Referral Programs
12. Grow Your Podcasts Through YouTube
13. Use Break-Even Ads for Brand Awareness
14. Prevent Gmail from Going to Spam
15. Optimize When Your Ads Go Out
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The Signal: Since the start of the pandemic outbreak in the US, we have been tracking startup funding data. Based on Dan Primack’s indispensable Pro Rata newsletter, our latest analysis looks at 288 venture deals closed in June 2020.Over the month, the industries that have received the most funding were Health Tech (15%), Fintech (9%), Data (9%), Biotech (9%), Enterprise SaaS (6%), Cybersecurity (6%), HR (5%), and Real Estate (4%).
Geographically, California (25%) remains home to the largest number of companies, followed by New York (10%), Massachusetts (8%), UK (6%), and Israel (3%).
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Bob Pittman — the creator of MTV, former CEO of Six Flags, Time Warner, AOL, and Century 21 Real Estate and now current CEO of iHeartMedia — has had a hell of a career.
With an incredible background in the media business, Pittman turned heads in 2003 when he launched Pilot Group. The new venture was an incubator and investment fund for a business that many people wouldn’t have expected a media tycoon to get involved in: newsletters.
Trends readers have long expressed an interest in the nuts and bolts behind the newsletter business. This report will give you a behind-the-scenes look at how it works.
By doing so, we’ll answer why Pittman (along with thousands of other entrepreneurs) have flocked to this simple — but surprisingly profitable — business model.
In 1996, Microsoft released Internet Mail and News 1.0, a feature for its Internet Explorer browser. This was later renamed Outlook. That same year, other companies like Hotmail started offering free email services that could be used anywhere. And email was born.
Since then, email has become embedded in our culture (75%+ of US adults have an account).
In those early years, companies primarily used email as a way to send marketing material.
However, when Pittman entered the industry, he changed the perception of email. Specifically, he showed that email newsletters can be a standalone business.
Pittman & The Pilot Group
In December of 2003, Bob Pittman acquired DailyCandy, a trendy daily email for young women that featured tips on everything from restaurants and nightclubs to sample sales and beauty finds.
Pittman paid $3.5m for the business. At the time, DailyCandy consisted of 200k subscribers and a brilliant editor/founder named Danielle Levy.
The plan behind Pittman’s investment, say sources familiar with his strategy, was to help transform DailyCandy from a newsletter into a multimedia player that could extend its brand into magazines and books, stand-alone television shows, and perhaps even shopping or restaurant guides.
Over the next 5 years, DailyCandy went all-in on email. By 2009 the company grew to 2.5m subscribers and, according to Pittman, $25m in revenue with EBITDA of over $10m. That same year, Comcast acquired DailyCandy for $125m.
Following the acquisition, Pittman launched The Pilot Group, an incubator dedicated to launching DailyCandy for other verticals.
Pilot’s companies included Thrillist (now a $500m media company), PureWow ($25m in revenue before it was acquired for $40m), Business Insider (sold for $500m), and dozens more.
Most recently, individuals such as Ben Thompson (Stratechery) and Bill Bishop (Sinocism) have proven that single-person newsletter operations can generate 7-figures in annual revenue.
Furthermore, new media companies built through newsletters are generating healthy 8 figures in revenue:
A salient example of the growing trend in newsletters is the rise of Substack. The startup provides tools for writers to write, distribute, build community and monetize newsletters. It raised $18m from leading venture firm Andreessen Horowitz and, since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, has doubled its readership and the number of newsletters.
Warren Buffet loved newspapers. They were predictable and profitable. But now they suck. In their place, newsletters have stepped in, with all the upside (low-cost, direct-to-consumer benefits, with an opportunity to exploit many profitable niches) and little of the downside.
There are two primary business models in the newsletter business: ad-supported and subscription-based (see sample spreadsheet models here).
1. Ad-Supported (Examples: The Hustle, The Skimm, Axios)
For ad-supported newsletters, the key metrics include:
And key ad types include:
The sample ad-based model below looks at the monthly revenue for a newsletter sent 5 days a week with the following assumptions:
Based on these assumptions, the monthly ad revenue for this newsletter is $50k / day and ~$1m / month (5 days per week x 4 week = 20 days).
2. Subscription-Based (Examples: Stratechery, The Athletic, Trapital, 2PM, Trends, The Information)
A DIY subscription-based newsletter typically works in the following manner:
Stratechery, written by Ben Thompson, is a tech and business strategy newsletter launched in 2013. The content business provides one free weekly report and three additional pay-walled reports a week.
While he has not confirmed his subscriber count in a number of years, internet sleuths pin Thompson’s paying subscribers at a minimum of 25k, each shelling out $100-120 a year.
These estimates provide Thompson’s revenue figures and we can back out his expenses (tools he pays for) from the Stratechery Privacy Policy page.
Based on this fairly rough guesstimate, Thompson brings in revenue of $3m with a stellar 90% pre-tax profit margin ($2.7m net profit).
(You can change Stratechery subscriber assumptions here)
3. Substack Subscription-Based (Examples: Sinocism, Petition, TrueHoop)
Another subscription-based newsletter option for creators is Substack. As seen in the Stratechery example, a newsletter entrepreneur needs to be familiar with a number of tools (membership, forums, payments, content delivery networks, hosting, etc.) to successfully operate a newsletter business.
Substack has created a platform that offers a turnkey solution for these back-end services for creators (thus, allowing them to focus on content creation):
For those wondering “when is it a good time to monetize“, Substack has a great article based on the platform’s data (You’re Guide To Going Paid); the article is well worth reading and here are some notable bullet points:
Additionally, to make the subscription more appealing, here are some functionalities that Substackers offer:
In addition to Substack, there is an alternative “newsletter-as-a-service” platform called Ghost. The firm charges $29/month for its services and takes no transaction fee.
And, of course, there are more traditional mass email sending platforms (Mailchimp, Revue and Convert Kit) which have increasingly more “newsletter-as-a-service” functionality.
Additional Considerations For DIY Subscription vs. Substack:
While Substack provides a turnkey solution, the platform has a number of notable limitations for those looking to rev up paid subscription businesses:
Mass Adoption of Email
There are 3.9B active email users in the world, as compared to 3.5B social media users. Annual growth in email users is projected at a steady 2-3% over the next three years, bringing more end users into the email universe.
Better Engagement Than Social Media
In addition to the wide (and still growing) adoption of email, the channel has better engagement than the largest social networks:
Own Your Distribution and Relationship With Readers…
Late last year, the entrepreneur and investor Naval Ravikant tweeted that “building a following on Twitter is building a castle out of sand.” Large tech platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, Linkedin, and Google are famous for “changing algorithms” that can overturn the fortune of a media business overnight (e.g., Buzzfeed).
Because email is an open standard, when you build an audience via email newsletters, you directly own the relationship with the reader and are not at the whim of an algorithm change.
…Which Helps To Control Customer Acquisition Costs
Further, there is less of a reliance on paying Facebook (to get “boosted” on the news feed) or Google (to rank high in searches). While these ad prices have fallen during the pandemic, Facebook and Google ads regularly outpace inflation. Relying on them in the long-term is an expensive game.
Build A Community
The direct relationship with the end reader is also the perfect jumping point for building a broader community of like-minded people.
As 2PM’s Web Smith puts it:
Upsell and Cross-sell Opportunities
When you own a direct relationship with readers, you can sell additional products through the distribution channel:
Stable Medium
Related to the previous point, email is a well-established standard. It has not changed very much since its initial rise in the 90s. Moving forward, there will continue to be innovations in email clients (e.g., Superhuman, Hey), but the underlying standard is stable.
Lean Operating Costs…
As demonstrated by Ben Thompson’s Stratechery example in the previous section, newsletters can be an extremely lean business. A single individual writing expertly on a valuable subject can secure a high standard of living.
…With Opportunity To Ad On A Sales Team
While this may seem counterintuitive to the notion of lean operating costs, certain ad-supported newsletters can leverage sales teams effectively. Currently, there are no effective newsletter ad networks. A sales team with a good understanding of its audience and advertising can offer highly valuable contextual advertising that performs better than other ad options.
Ad-Supported
Subscription-Based
Subscription-Based (Substack)
Spam laws
The rise of increasingly stringent digital privacy laws (GDPR in Europe, CCPA in California, CAN-SPAM in Canada) has forced companies to closely follow anti-spam rules including: 1) user permissions; 2) honest headlines; 3) clear identification for ads; 4) opt-out options and more.
Very Crowded Space
Every major publication has a number of newsletter offerings (e.g., New York Times, Washington Post, WSJ). Further, with the rise of turnkey services like Substack, countless newsletters are being launched every day. The newsletter opportunity is as big as ever, but it’s very important to find the content gaps (more on that below).
Subscription Fatigue
As more written content goes behind a paywall (not to mention paid audio and video streaming services), there is concern that readers will develop subscription fatigue. In recognition of this issue, some Substack publications are bundling together their offerings so readers only have to make one purchase decision.
Limited Search Visibility
For subscription-based newsletters, the existence of paywalls means that the content is often hidden from search engine bots crawling the web. As a result, the content doesn’t show up in searches for relevant queries.
Difficult To Go Viral
Another related challenge is that gated content has a harder time going viral, as people are less likely to share items that hit paywalls.
Marie Dollé — a French-American digital strategist — put together a fantastic market map of newsletter-related products. We will touch on some of these categories below, but here is the graphic for inspiration:
Content Gaps (Particularly B2B)
There are countless content niches that could use a dedicated newsletter.
The B2B space is particularly ripe for disruption and offers high revenue potential as industry insiders will pay top dollar for analytics and insights (aka the “corporate credit card effect”).
As Petition — the Substack bankruptcy newsletter — shows, there is great appetite to give traditionally dry, industry-specific trade publications a more approachable voice.
A Google search of popular trade publications shows dozens of opportunities, including:
Curation, Bundling & Discovery Tools
As noted by Ben Thompson, whenever an industry goes from scarcity to abundance, there is great value in services that facilitate discovery and curation. Newsletter Stack is a recently launched platform that allows individuals to curate their favorite newsletter. Similarly, Substack’s internal discovery tool ranks the top paid and free publications.
Other discovery tools include:
We touched on the idea of bundling earlier and, in many ways, it falls under the “curation” umbrella. Packaging together complementary newsletters or writers into one package is an act of curation.
Here is more from tech and innovation consultant, Ari Lewis:
Paywall Services
One of the key decisions for any subscription business is to decide how much free content is made available.
Because of these varying strategies, there is an appetite for digital solutions that can register and subscribe readers as well as predict churn (or other related analytics) for paywalled content.
Piano is one such firm. But, based on the Trends team’s experience with the service, there is clearly an opportunity for a superior offering. (Message us if you have ideas!)
Newsletter Management
Management tools are needed to handle the abundance of newsletter. There are a number of solutions that curate newsletter feeds (Feedly, Newsletry, Feedbin) and newsletter reading apps (Stoop, Slick).
The Signal: One of our fellow community members recently pulled the data on 2.4k+ Kickstarter campaigns, and we dug through the numbers to see what projects are running successful campaigns during quarantine.
To identify these projects, we filtered the table for:
We also focused the list on physical products and filtered out tabletop games, which is traditionally a popular category in Kickstarter Land but less applicable for the Trends audience.
The Signal: The quarantine period turbocharged e-commerce spend over the past few months.
To get a view on which e-commerce product categories are currently looking attractive, the Trends team asked ThoughtLeaders — a marketing intelligence tool — to provide us with data they’ve collected that will help you identify market opportunities.
ThoughLeaders tracks brand mentions across thousands of influencers on non-Facebook/Google ad channels, including YouTube, podcasts, newsletters, and blogs.
To identify which DTC brands have been expanding their ad footprint, we looked at direct-response ad tests across the aforementioned channels in Q2 2020 vs. Q2 2019.
This presentation was put together by Trung Phan. Send questions or comments via email or Twitter.
It was inspired by Blake Robbins’ Twitter thread highlighting the companies shaping the future of media & pop culture.
Blake is a partner at early-stage venture fund Ludlow Ventures. Follow him on Twitter and subscribe to his newsletter on Substack.
Trends subscribers can download a PDF of the presentation here.
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One of our most popular reports last year was a deep dive on the out-of-home (OOH) advertising market.
The article provided a thorough macro overview of the industry, but we wanted to expand on the piece with on-the-ground actionable intel.
To do so, we reached out to Kasper Koczab, Brex’s head of OOH media. Named one of Brex’s “power players” by Business Insider, Koczab previously worked at one of America’s leading OOH advertising firms (Clear Channel Outdoor) and is a veteran of the industry.
The Signal: The coronavirus crisis is forcing governments in the US and Europe to make regulatory changes on the fly.
The post-crisis world will see significant regulatory changes in regard to health care and disaster preparedness. And these changes will cost companies billions in compliance costs.
According to research by Rice University, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform & Consumer Protection Act following the 2008-09 financial crisis “roughly doubled the number of regulations applied to U.S. banks, which hiked their compliance costs by more than $50 billion per year”. Costs included compliance salary expenses, auditing, consulting, data processing and legal fees.
Further analysis by George Mason University showed that the number of new regulatory restrictions created by the Dodd-Frank Act dwarfed the combined impact of every other Obama-era administration law.
In addition to the fact that there is significant coronavirus-related changes coming to global regulatory regimes, existing compliance training have 2 underlying factors that make the industry ripe for disruption:
The Opportunity: Moving forward, the compliance industry will only grow with corona-related bills adding to the likes of the aforementioned Dodd-Frank Law as well as Health Insurance Portability & Accountability Act (HIPAA), Sarbanes-Oxley, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA).
Our research identifies 4 categories of compliance training that present opportunities to create new solutions:
Andrew Hogan, a London-based paid marketing professional with 10 years of travel and ecommerce experience, set the Trends Facebook group on fire with this post: “Today, I will help validate your idea with Google search data.”
The post has 180+ comments and dozens of business idea submissions.
In exchange for testing business ideas, Andrew was allowed to post his findings publicly for the group to see. (Not a bad tradeoff!)
Lecture Lessons provides actionable takeaways from our Trends Lectures series. This entry is based on Nik Sharma’s Product Launch 101 webinar. You can find him at Sharma Brands, follow him on Twitter or contact him via text (917-905-2340).
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As an operator, investor and advisor, Nik Sharma has worked with leading names in the direct-to-consumer (DTC) space including Hint, VaynerMedia, Judy, and Haus.
In this article, we’ve gathered the most actionable insights and resources (there are a lot) from his Trends Lectures Product Launch 101 webinar including: